The Nintendo Switch 2 Situation

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Microsoft has gone on to make one of the biggest acquisitions in the industry. Sony has bought Bungie while continuing to develop Project Spartacus to rival the Xbox Game Pass (supposedly). Nintendo has announced that the Switch is “currently in the middle of its life-cycle,” which means business as usual for the folks over at Nintendo.

Rumors about the Switch Pro or the Switch 2 are a dime-a-dozen and have been the topic of contention and discourse over the last several years. Rightfully so. When compared to the big moves made by its competition (releasing next-gen consoles, acquiring developers en masse), Nintendo seems all too intent on riding its own wave in the whirling ocean that is the current state of the gaming world. Not that it’s a bad thing, Nintendo is notorious and respected for marching to the beat of its own drum no matter the weather.

Amassing all the recent news from the Japanese gaming giant, let’s take a look and speculate what we can expect for the Switch and whatever its future successor might be in the coming days.

Nintendo Switch Current Status

Most of what we can garner about Nintendo’s next steps forward can be found in Nintendo’s Second Quarter Financial Results Report, where Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa detailed the current status of the company’s flagship console and future endeavors, financially and business-wise. 

Immediate spoilers, there is no concrete mention of a Switch Pro or Switch 2 as fans have colloquially called the ever-elusive next-gen Nintendo console, staying in line with the fact that the Switch is only “halfway” through its lifespan. 

The company’s main drive heading into the console’s fifth year is continuing its trend of integrated software-hardware entertainment. What this means is that Nintendo intends to branch out through other mediums (mobile, merchandise, visual entertainment, and more) utilizing its stellar IPs to expand the reach and accessibility of its said IPs. The ultimate goal is to awaken a new interest in the Nintendo game experience from both newcomers and old fans through “touchpoints” outside of traditional gaming, thus driving interest toward the Switch console.

This strategy can be seen working in two major ways: cumulative sales and purchase motive diversification.

Cumulative sales are straightforward. The Switch has gone on to be Nintendo’s 3rd best-selling console with over 103.54 million units sold as of December 2021. This is calculated by combining all the units sold of each type of Switch (regular, Lite, OLED) throughout the console’s current lifespan. This, of course, can be attributed to Nintendo’s software-hardware integration approach but also the second reason stated above.

The diversification of purchase motivation simply means that the reason for buying a Nintendo Switch console has multiplied over the years. People have purchased the Switch for the first time, to replace an older model, and/or to expand their library with a Lite or OLED variation. On top of this, Switch’s unique mode of operation has led many households to purchase and own multiple Switch consoles, something Nintendo’s competitors can’t boast in equal measure.

These factors, on top of Nintendo’s robust library of first-party titles and software, have contributed to tremendous sales throughout the console’s five years and Nintendo is showing no signs of letting up. The company has dedicated over 100 billion Yen ($865,823,350 USD) to further bolster Nintendo software development with an undisclosed amount being allotted to R&D. With many games planned and a Nintendo Direct announced for February 9, 2022, Nintendo’s teams are hard at work to further expound reasons to join the Nintendo family.

Though it may look like Nintendo isn’t making any big moves or doing anything to compete with rival giants, it has a good formula that has served it well over the last couple of years.  It has also purposefully refused to partake in the Microsoft/Sony acquisitions arms race, choosing to dedicate resources, time, and manpower towards internal Nintendo-DNA-infused development. Why fix what isn’t broken?

But What Does This Have to Do with the Switch 2?

The Switch 2 is not a question of “if” but rather a question of “when.” Nintendo has confirmed that a new console will release sometime before 2100, but that could be at any time in the coming future. We do not know if the future console will be an incremental upgrade (like 3DS to New 3DS) or an entirely new system. However, what we do know is Nintendo’s plans for the year onward.

Taking into account all of the strategies and plans Nintendo has laid out for its fiscal year in 2022, a new console does not fit into that schedule at all, including new game releases, expanding IPs into other mediums, software-hardware integration, etc. Instead, it appears as though Nintendo is laying the groundwork for longer, lasting relationships with its consumers based on how much effort is being put into connecting with people and fans outside of regular Nintendo/gaming contexts and environments. Given how fervent and near-religious Nintendo fans can and tend to be, this strategy has been remarkably successful.

This method of expanding Nintendo’s reach and bringing in new customers (while also re-awakening interest in old ones) will pay dividends for Nintendo in the long run when it does eventually release a new console. It will ensure a swath of loyal and dedicated customers who have their bodies ready for the inevitable unveiling of Nintendo’s next machine. Movies, amusement parks, and merchandise are just another way to ignite interest and attention for the Nintendo brand and avenues it will no doubt utilize to direct focus towards its consoles. This building of the customer base and company-customer relationship might be why Nintendo is hesitant to release anything big or new anytime soon.

However, another factor that cannot be overlooked is chip shortages. It’s a problem that affects gamers no matter what brand they represent or stand for, still leaving many eager and hungry for consoles and parts that are in short supply. It was what allowed the Nintendo Switch to overtake the PS5 and XSX’s sales. It’d be a foolish decision to unveil and launch a next-gen console within this premise.

So, until chip shortages have been sorted out and until Nintendo has grown its customer base to a degree it’s satisfied with, a Switch Pro or Switch 2 is out of the picture. 

At least Nintendo was generous enough to tell us it might release before 2100.

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